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本文分析了货币因素和货币政策影响能源价格上涨的内在机制和主要渠道,并在Gordon“三角模型”的框架内开展实证研究。结果表明:货币因素从需求拉动、成本推动和预期驱动三方面影响能源价格,其中需求拉动是主要渠道;货币因素对能源涨价的贡献度超过了产出缺口代表的需求因素和进口能源价格代表的供给因素;各种货币政策工具对能源价格均有影响,其中人民币汇率弹性的影响最明显,存款准备金率次之,利率影响最小。面对能源价格的结构性上涨,央行应密切关注包括能源在内的总体物价,逐步完善货币信贷政策和发展能源金融市场。
This paper analyzes the internal mechanism and the main channels through which monetary and monetary policies affect the rise of energy prices and conducts empirical research within the framework of Gordon ’s triangular model. The result shows that the monetary factor affects the energy price from three aspects: demand pull, cost push and anticipation drive. Demand pull is the main channel. The contribution of monetary factor to energy price increase exceeds the demand factor represented by the output gap and the representative of import energy price Of the supply factors; all kinds of monetary policy tools have an impact on energy prices, of which the impact of RMB exchange rate elasticity of the most obvious, followed by the deposit reserve rate, the interest rate minimum. Faced with the structural rise in energy prices, the central bank should pay close attention to the overall price, including energy, and gradually improve the monetary and credit policies and the development of energy and financial markets.