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198 8年 1月以来 ,国际棉花咨询委员会颁布了平均棉价预测模型 ,主要依据是一个非方程模型 ,该模型以科蒂卢克 A指数的变化与世界原棉供需变化的相关关系为主。并自此后一直致力于完善修改出更精确的棉价预测方法。很有可能采用已经过估测的“统计充分模型”:Yt=a+ c* Pt+ d* P
198 Since January 2008, the International Cotton Advisory Committee has promulgated an average cotton price forecasting model based mainly on a non-equation model based on the correlation between the change in the Cotyluck A Index and the world supply and demand for raw cotton. Since then, he has been devoting himself to perfecting and modifying a more accurate cotton price forecasting method. It is quite possible to use the “statistic sufficient model” that has been evaluated: Yt = a + c * Pt + d * P