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采用COMCOT数值模式,将日本东海岸划分为18个单位震源,建立了日本东海岸海啸数据库并用非负约束的最小二乘法建立反问题预报模式。将本模式应用于日本“3·11”海啸,计算所得的海啸初始水位有10 m的抬高与3 m的降低,与前人研究结果基本一致,预报的浮标水位与实测资料符合良好。对比浙江省近岸潮位站实测海啸波高,预报值与实测值偏差较大。若采用反问题反演的震源,通过COMCOT非线性模式求解近岸水位,可以大幅提高预报精度。
Using the COMCOT numerical model, the east coast of Japan is divided into 18 units of hypocenters, a tsunami database of the east coast of Japan is established, and an inverse problem prediction model is established by the least squares method with nonnegative constraints. Applying this model to the tsunami of “3.11” in Japan, the calculated initial tsunami elevation of 10 m and the decrease of 3 m are basically consistent with those of previous studies. The forecast buoy level is in good agreement with the measured data . Compared with the measured tsunami wave height at tidal station near nearshore in Zhejiang Province, the deviation between predicted value and measured value is larger. If seismic source inversion is used to solve the nearshore water level through the COMCOT nonlinear model, the prediction accuracy can be greatly improved.