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本文选取1995-2009年的季度数据作为样本,借助协整分析、误差修正模型以及Granger因果检验等方法,从中美贸易收支和美在华FDI两方面,就人民币实际汇率对中美经贸关系的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明:长期内,虽然人民币汇率调整在一定程度上可以改善中美经贸关系,但人民币升值并不能改善美中贸易逆差,而短期内的影响更不显著,两国贸易收支和美在华FDI的收入效应也并不明显。因此,改善中美经贸关系的解决之道在于转变我国经济发展模式和外贸发展战略;逐步完善汇率制度,加快人民币国际化进程等。
This article selects the quarterly data for 1995-2009 as a sample. With the help of co-integration analysis, error correction model, and Granger causality test, the impact of the real exchange rate of the RMB on Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations from the perspective of Sino-US trade balance and U.S. FDI in the US An empirical study was conducted. The results show that in the long term, although the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate can improve Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations to a certain extent, the appreciation of the renminbi cannot improve the US-China trade deficit, but the impact in the short term is even less pronounced. The trade balance between the two countries and the US FDI in the United States The income effect is also not obvious. Therefore, the solution to improve Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations is to transform China’s economic development model and foreign trade development strategy; gradually improve the exchange rate system and speed up the process of RMB internationalization.