对客运量的发展趋势进行科学预测是铁路客运企业正确进行市场决策的基础。运用Box-Jenkins对某铁路局的客运量进行了预测,结果显示Box-Jenkins模型在分析处理短期客运发送量预测工作中的非平稳时间序列上,具有一定的优势,预测结果可信。 Scientific prediction of the development trend of passenger traffic is the basis for the railway passenger transport enterprises to make correct market decisions. Using Box-Jenkins to predict the passenger volume of a railway administration, the results show that the Box-Jenkins model has certain advantages in analyzing and processing the non-stationary time series in the short-term passenger transport volume forecasting work, and the prediction result is credible.