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目的:到2015年使95%的人口获得支付得起的基本药物是联合国千年发展目标之一,但是基本药物的遴选和人口覆盖目标之间的联系并没有建立。方法:原创性地建立了以人口、药费和药物目录等为变元的数学模型。结果:将世界卫生组织、我国2004和2009年的基本药物目录数据代入模型,测算结果表明,我国2004年目录药费总开支最大,而2009年目录药费总开支最小,年均可比2004年目录药费节约1 400亿元。结论:削减基本药物却反而可扩大其人口覆盖率,并使药费支出总额减少,这恰是基本药物政策的精髓所在。
Purpose: One of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals is to have access to affordable essential drugs by 2015 with 95% of the population, but the link between the selection of essential medicines and the goal of population coverage has not been established. Methods: To establish a mathematical model with variables such as population, medical expenses and medicine catalogs. Results: The World Health Organization, China’s basic drug list data in 2004 and 2009 were substituted into the model, and the calculation results showed that the total expenditure on drugs in 2004 was the largest in China, while the total expenditure on medicine in 2009 was the smallest, Drug savings of 140 billion yuan. Conclusion: Reducing essential medicines can, on the contrary, increase their population coverage and reduce the total expenditure on medicines, which is precisely the essence of the basic medicine policy.