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本文针对邱均平同志的“我国当代图书出版数学模型的研究”一文所建我国当代图书出版数学模型的结论,指出该模型预测功能的不可靠性。然后根据奥卡姆氏简化原理,采用回归分析方法,在PB—700型计算机上进行了模拟求解,得出我国当代图书出版数学模型的线性及指数函数表达式,并对此进行了显著性检验,得出两种模型均可信,且能揭示一定时期内我国当代图书出版数量的增长规律的结论。最后对目前已建立的三种模型进行了预测比较,发现线性模型预测精度最高。
In this paper, Comrade Qiu Junping ’s “Contemporary Chinese Book Publishing Mathematical Model,” a paper built on contemporary Chinese book publishing mathematical model concluded that the model predicts the unreliability of the function. Then, according to Occam’s simplified principle, regression analysis is used to solve the problem on the PB-700 computer. The linear and exponential function expressions of the contemporary Chinese book publishing mathematical model are obtained and tested It is concluded that both models are credible and can reveal the law of the growth of the number of contemporary books published in our country in a certain period of time. Finally, the three models that have been established are predicted and compared, and the linear model has the highest prediction accuracy.