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污染物迁移通常是污染区域环境风险评估与分级中的一个关键因素。在本研究中,我们使用一种稳态方法来对一个污染市政饮用水供应的地点的农药代谢物BAM(2,6-二氯苯腈)的迁移时间和含量进行了评估。另外还使用一种蒙特卡洛模拟技术来量化结果的不确定性并且估计所使用参数的敏感性。采用的方法产生的评估表明BAM从污染地点到达水供应的迁移时间的中值为10年。非饱和区域的土壤有机碳含量和饱和区域的水力导度分别解释了迁移时间的估计中44%和23%的不确定性。敏感度分析表明由于受污染地点整个地区的地下水流以及土壤有机碳含量造成的稀释因子分别解释了含量估计的53%和31%的不确定性。总之,可以使用这里采用的稳态方法来获得关于迁移时间和含量的可靠的初步估计,但是可能需要一个动态模型来提高对降解的污染物含量的预测。
Pollutant migration is often a key factor in environmental risk assessment and classification of contaminated areas. In this study, we used a steady-state method to assess the migration time and content of the pesticide metabolite BAM (2,6-dichlorobenzonitrile) in a place contaminated municipal drinking water supply. A Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used to quantify the uncertainty of the results and to estimate the sensitivity of the parameters used. The assessment of the methodology used showed that the median migration time for BAM from the polluted site to the water supply was 10 years. Soil organic carbon content in unsaturated regions and hydraulic conductivity in saturated regions account for 44% and 23% of the uncertainty, respectively, in the estimation of migration time. Sensitivity analysis shows that the dilution factor due to groundwater flow and soil organic carbon content in the entire area of the contaminated site explains the uncertainty of 53% and 31% of the estimated content, respectively. In summary, steady-state methods employed here can be used to obtain reliable preliminary estimates of migration times and levels, but a dynamic model may be needed to improve the prediction of the level of degraded pollutants.