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为建立中短距离多方式大容量城市群城际运输通道旅客运输方式合理分担率模型,分析了通道内旅客出行运输方式选择特征及客流分担率的影响因素;从城际交通一体化和全程出行链的构成出发引入广义费用函数,运用极大似然法对传统的多维Logit概率模型进行改进,从全程效用最优化和运输方式衔接一体化的角度,分析了城际运输通道交通衔接和换乘关系;最后,利用模型预测了未来广清(广州—清运)城际运输通道内各运输方式分担率的变化。研究结果表明,该模型具有较高的可靠性。
In order to establish a reasonable sharing rate model of passenger transport modes in inter-city transport corridors of large-capacity medium-sized metropolitan area with medium and short distances, this paper analyzes the characteristics of passenger transport options and the influential factors of passenger flow distribution rates in inter-city transport corridors. From inter- city traffic integration and full travel Starting from the composition of the chain, the generalized cost function is introduced, and the traditional multi-dimensional Logit probability model is improved by using the maximum likelihood method. From the perspective of the integration of utility optimization and transport mode, the paper analyzes the interlinkage and transfer of inter-city transport corridor Finally, the model is used to predict the changes of the share of transportation modes in the inter-city transportation corridors of Guangqing (Guangzhou-Qingyun) in the future. The results show that the model has high reliability.