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本文首先分析了人力资本对服务贸易差额的影响机制与作用途径,然后利用51个国家1990-2012年的跨国面板数据考察了人力资本对服务贸易差额的影响,研究结果表明:在控制了模型的内生性和动态性后,对于所有国家和发达国家样本而言,不论以何种指标作为人力资本的代理变量,人力资本均对服务贸易差额具有显著的正向影响。对于发展中国家而言,由于其人力资本水平和人力资本质量与发达国家存在较大的差距,其平均受教育年限和加权的高等教育入学率并未对服务贸易差额产生显著的正向影响,但健康人力资本的增加能够显著改善其服务贸易差额。分类型的研究还发现,教育人力资本对生产性服务贸易差额的促进作用要更强,而健康人力资本对消费性服务贸易差额的影响要更大。本文的研究结论为我国扭转服务贸易逆差,优化服务贸易结构提供了可能的路径。
This paper first analyzes the influence mechanism of human capital on service trade balance and its function, and then uses the cross-border panel data of 51 countries from 1990 to 2012 to examine the impact of human capital on service trade balance. The results show that: Endogenous and dynamic, for all countries and developed countries samples, no matter what kind of indicators as proxy variables of human capital, human capital has a significant positive impact on service trade balance. For developing countries, due to the large gap between their level of human capital and the quality of human capital and that of developed countries, their average years of education and weighted higher education enrollment rates have not had a significant positive impact on trade balance. However, an increase in healthy human capital can significantly improve its trade in services balance. The categorical study also found that the promotion of educational human capital on producer service trade balances is stronger and the impact of healthy human capital on consumer service trade balances is greater. The conclusion of this paper provides a possible way for our country to reverse the trade deficit and optimize the structure of trade in services.