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目的分析并评价江门市传染病自动预警系统运行情况,为进一步完善传染病预警工作提供依据。方法对2008—2014年江门市传染病自动预警系统发出的预警信号进行描述性分析,并以灵敏度、阳性预测值和领先时间作为主要评价指标分析预警系统的运行结果。结果传染病自动预警系统共发出预警信号7 646条,经现场调查确认发生暴发/流行20条,涉及病种26种。4—9月为预警信号发送高峰,占预警信号总数的60.87%。从发出预警信号到填报异常信息卡的预警响应时间中位数为8.99 h。预警系统灵敏度为35.09%,阳性预测值为0.26%。探测事件的预警信号领先时间80%为负值。结论江门市传染病自动预警系统灵敏度不高,阳性预测值较低,预警信号发出时间滞后于疫情报告时间,现有的预警工作机制和预警方法仍值得进一步探索和优化。
Objective To analyze and evaluate the operation of automatic warning system for infectious diseases in Jiangmen City and provide evidence for further improvement of early warning of infectious diseases. Methods A descriptive analysis of early warning signals from automatic epidemic warning system for communicable diseases in Jiangmen City from 2008 to 2014 was conducted. The sensitivity, positive predictive value and lead time were taken as the main evaluation indexes to analyze the operation results of early warning system. Results A total of 7 646 early-warning signals were sent out by the system of automatic warning of infectious diseases. According to the field survey, 20 outbreaks and epidemics were confirmed, involving 26 species of diseases. From April to September, it sent the peak for early warning signal, accounting for 60.87% of the total number of early warning signal. The median time to warning response from the issuance of an early warning signal to the filing of an anomaly card is 8.99 h. The sensitivity of the early warning system was 35.09% and the positive predictive value was 0.26%. Early warning signal detection event 80% lead time is negative. Conclusion The automatic early warning system for communicable diseases in Jiangmen City is not sensitive and the positive predictive value is low. The warning signal lags behind the reporting time. The existing early warning mechanism and early warning method still deserve further exploration and optimization.