乒乓球比赛中对双方胜败的预测是教练进行排兵布阵十分关心的问题,如何对双方胜败预测提供科学的依据。首先提出了乒乓球比赛中回合的定义,并通过一个刻画双方命中率的序列来描述双方的技术水平。在该序列的基础上,计算出每个回合中比赛双方的胜率,由此计算出比赛双方最终比赛的胜率。运用该模型,对进攻与防守典型战术分析,得出具有指导性的建议:一个优秀的乒乓球运动员,应该根据对手的命中率来确定自己的多进攻还是多防守。还利用优秀国手的比赛录像进行数据统计,运用文中模型对国手进行技术分析和胜败预测,得到合理的结论。 Prediction of the success or failure of both sides in the ping-pong game is a matter of great concern to the coach for arranging formations and how to provide a scientific basis for the prediction of both sides’ winning and losing. First of all, the definition of the round in table tennis competition is proposed and the technical level of both sides is described by a sequence depicting the hit rate of both sides. Based on this sequence, the winning percentage of each match is calculated for each round, from which the winning percentage of the final match between the two sides of the match is calculated. Using this model, the typical offensive and defensive tactical analysis leads to guidance: A good ping pong player should determine his multi-attack or multi-defense based on his opponent’s hit rate. Also use the excellent national team video game data statistics, the use of text models of national technical analysis and victory or defeat prediction, get a reasonable conclusion.