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目的运用标准化和基于移动平均法的趋势季节模型对流行性腮腺炎疫情进行预测,并进行评价。方法利用襄阳市2005-2010年流行性腮腺炎监测资料,将粗发病率按2011年当地人口的年龄等因素进行标准化,建立基于移动平均法的趋势季节模型,预测2011年发病情况并与实际数据进行对比评价。结果采用标准化法和基于移动平均法的趋势季节模型,对2011年流行性腮腺炎突发事件和聚集性病例报告均进行了提示,灵敏度100%,特异度84.62%。结论基于移动平均法的趋势季节模型用于流行性腮腺炎疫情预测实际可行,对预防控制有实用意义;在预测分析时,既往资料按预测时间的人口学特征进行标准化是必要的。
Objective To forecast and evaluate the epidemic situation of mumps by using the standardization and the trend season model based on the moving average method. Methods The epidemic mumps surveillance data from 2005 to 2010 in Xiangyang were used to standardize the incidence of crude diseases according to the age of the local population in 2011. A trend season model based on the moving average method was established to predict the incidence in 2011 and compare it with the actual data Comparative evaluation. Results The standardization method and the trend season model based on the moving average method were used to indicate the 2011 cases of mumps emergencies and cluster cases with sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 84.62%. Conclusion The trend season model based on the moving average method is feasible and practical for prevention and control of mumps epidemic. It is necessary to standardize the past data according to the demographic characteristics of forecast time in the prediction and analysis.