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如何实现中国碳减排目标已经成为当前的研究热点,为完成减排目标首先要研究中国CO2排放量的影响因素。首先利用灰色关联分析方法选择与中国CO2排放量灰色关联度最高的3个变量:能源消费量、第三产业比重、外贸依存度。协整检验表明中国CO2排放量和3个影响因素之间存在长期协整关系,本文同时建立中国CO2排放量的长期协整方程和短期误差修正模型。运用误差修正模型得到的中国CO2排放量预测值与真实值的比较和得到的统计值均表明本文建立的模型有较好的解释能力和信度。
How to achieve China’s carbon emission reduction targets has become the current research focus, in order to complete the emission reduction targets first of all to study the impact of China’s CO2 emissions. Firstly, we use gray relational analysis to select the three variables that have the highest gray correlation with China’s CO2 emissions: energy consumption, the proportion of the tertiary industry and the dependence on foreign trade. Co-integration tests show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the CO2 emissions in China and the three influencing factors. This paper also establishes a long-term co-integration equation and a short-term error correction model for China’s CO2 emissions. The comparison between the predicted value of China’s CO2 emissions and the true value obtained by using the error correction model and the statistical values obtained show that the model established in this paper has good explanatory power and reliability.