本文对山东省居民１９７０～１９９７年脑卒中死亡率进行了动态分析，并根据时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，对山东省城乡１９９８～２００７年脑卒中死亡趋势作出预测。分析结果表明，山东省脑卒中粗死亡率近２７年间增长了９４３２％，标化死亡率增长了７７２８％。脑梗塞占脑卒中死亡的比例逐年上升，而脑出血则反之。如不加以预防和控制，在未来的１０年间，脑卒中标化死亡率城、乡将分别上升至６１５０／１０万，７３６３／１０万，比１９９７年分别增加１７０％，１４５２％。 In this paper, the mortality rate of stroke in Shandong Province from 1970 to 1997 was analyzed. According to the trend of time series, a gray system theoretical model was established to predict the death rate of stroke in urban and rural areas of Shandong Province from 1998 to 2007. The results showed that the crude mortality rate of stroke in Shandong increased by 9432% in the past 27 years, and the standardized mortality rate increased by 7728%. Cerebral infarction accounted for the proportion of deaths from stroke increased year by year, while cerebral hemorrhage is the opposite. Without prevention and control, in the next 10 years, the standardized rates of death from stroke and urbanization will rise to 6150 / 100,000 and 7363 / 100,000, respectively, an increase of 170% over 1997, 14  52%.