基于BOX-Jenkins方法的青南高原降水量时间序列分析建模与预测

来源 :数理统计与管理 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户：gdgyhp

【摘要】

：

应用基于BOX-Jenkins方法的时间序列分析技术,对青南高原的四个典型地区1961-2005年降水量序列进行ARMA建模分析:验证了四地区年降水量序列的时间序列特性,研究并选择了这些

【作者】

：

王晓鹏曹广超丁生喜

【机构】

：

青海师范大学数学与信息科学系,青海,西宁,810008;青海师范大学地理与资源环境系,青海,西宁,810008;青海大学经济系,青海,西宁,810016

【出处】

：

数理统计与管理

【发表日期】

：

2008年4期

【关键词】

：

Box-Jenkins方法年降水量时间序列分析 ARMA模型

【基金项目】

：

国家社会科学基金统计学项目;青海省科技厅自然科学基金

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论文部分内容阅读

应用基于BOX-Jenkins方法的时间序列分析技术,对青南高原的四个典型地区1961-2005年降水量序列进行ARMA建模分析:验证了四地区年降水量序列的时间序列特性,研究并选择了这些序列的最佳ARMA模型,本文也通过模型对未来降水量进行了预测.模型实证分析的结果表明:在青藏高原降水量时间序列分析建模与预测方面,BOX-Jenkins方法及其模型是一种精度较高且切实有效的方法模型.

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基于BOX-Jenkins方法的青南高原降水量时间序列分析建模与预测

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