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[目的]通过定量描述糖尿病死亡率的年龄、时期和出生队列特征,预测上海市糖尿病死亡趋势,为预防控制糖尿病提供依据。[方法]死亡数据来自上海市疾病预防控制中心死亡登记系统。部分年份的年龄别人口数采用内插法推算。1992年至2003年间登记的疾病编码标准前后有2种(ICD-9和ICD-10),选择占全人群糖尿病提及死亡98%的30~89岁的糖尿病提及死亡个案作为研究对象。采用年龄-时期-队列模型(Age-Period-CohortModel,APC模型)的分析方法,根据模型拟合结果进行预测。[结果]模型拟合结果以同时加入年龄、时期、队列效应的模型为最佳。分性别糖尿病死亡率的年龄、时期和队列效应均表现出序列趋势。应用模型拟合预测2013~2015年上海市分性别的30~89岁年龄别糖尿病死亡率,各年龄组死亡率相对于2001~2003年均大幅上升。[结论]糖尿病将持续成为上海市居民的主要死因之一,开展以代谢综合症(MS)为先导的社区综合防治应成为糖尿病预防控制的优先策略。
[Objective] To predict the mortality trend of diabetes in Shanghai by quantitatively describing the age, age and birth cohort of diabetes mortality and provide basis for the prevention and control of diabetes mellitus. [Method] The death data come from the death registration system of Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention. In some years, the population of the age and other people is interpolated. There were two types of ICD-9 and ICD-10 disease codes before and after registration between 1992 and 2003, and 30-89-year-old diabetic deaths that accounted for 98% of total deaths from diabetes mellitus were selected as the study subjects. The age-period-cohort model (APC model) was used to analyze the model fitting results. [Results] The results of model fitting were the best when adding the models of age, period and cohort effect simultaneously. The gender, age, and cohort effects of gender-specific diabetes mortality showed sequence trends. Using model fitting to predict the age-related death rate of 30-89 years old in Shanghai from 2013 to 2015, the mortality rate of all age groups rose sharply from 2001 to 2003. [Conclusion] Diabetes mellitus will continue to be one of the major causes of death in Shanghai residents. It is a priority for prevention and control of diabetes mellitus to carry out integrated community-based prevention and control with metabolic syndrome (MS) as the guide.