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在地震短临预报中,按其实施的程序来说,必须经过前兆收集、分析判断作出地震预报决策,下达预报意见和进行防震等步骤,因之客观上必须要有一段时间。我们认为这个时间以五天到十天为最好。我国预报系统规定一周会商一次震情,是符合这个时间要求的。但是在这样的时间段内有无类似时间尺度的预报线索呢?这是个值得大力研究的问题,因为它的实用价值大。 1977年以来,我们曾发现某些前兆(包括前震)有倍九天的时间韵律,并提出用调制模
In the short-term and short-term earthquake prediction, according to the procedures it implements, we must collect, analyze and judge earthquake prediction and decision making, issue forecasting opinions and carry out earthquake-proofing measures. Therefore, it must be objective for some time. We think this time is best for five days to ten days. Our forecast system stipulates that a symposium once a week meets the requirements of this time. But is there any forewarning clue similar to the time scale in such a period of time? This is a question deserving to be vigorously studied because of its practical value. Since 1977, we have found that some precursors (including foreshocks) have a nine-day time rhythm and proposed using a modulation model