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服务业结构升级是影响我国就业状况的重要因素。通过对1978-2012年我国服务业细分行业进行协整分析、脉冲响应分析等发现,知识密集型服务业的就业吸纳弹性和持续创造就业的能力最高,资本密集型服务业次之,劳动密集型服务业相对较低。另外,通过回归分析还发现,人均GDP水平、城镇化水平、市场化程度和固定资产投资等,对我国服务业结构升级的就业效应具有明显影响。为增强服务业就业效应,我国应进一步扩大知识密集型服务业发展规模、提升劳动密集型服务业质量,实现服务业结构的优化。
The upgrading of service structure is an important factor that affects the employment situation in our country. Through the cointegration analysis and impulse response analysis of China’s service industry subdivision from 1978 to 2012, it is found that the knowledge-intensive service industry has the highest employment flexibility and sustained job creation ability, followed by capital-intensive service industry and labor-intensive Type service industry is relatively low. In addition, regression analysis also found that the per capita GDP level, urbanization level, degree of marketization and investment in fixed assets have a significant impact on the employment effect of upgrading the structure of China’s service industry. In order to enhance the employment effect of service industry, our country should further expand the scale of development of knowledge-intensive service industry, upgrade the quality of labor-intensive service industry and optimize the structure of service industry.