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本文沿着症状检测的思路,构建了外债安全状态指数并对中国外债安全状态的变化进行了机制分析。通过分析可以得到:(1)近年来我国的外债安全状态并不稳定,外债不安全的概率出现了一定的波动和升高;(2)在国际金融危机的背景之下,应该从更全面的角度对国家外债安全情况进行判断,以避免外债危机的发生。
Based on the idea of symptom detection, this paper constructs the index of the state of foreign debt security and makes a mechanism analysis of the change of the state of China’s debt security. Through analysis, we can get: (1) In recent years, the state of our country’s foreign debt security has not been stable; the probability of the unsafeness of the foreign debt has fluctuated and risen; (2) Under the background of the international financial crisis, From the perspective of judging the national security situation of foreign debts so as to avoid the occurrence of the foreign debt crisis.