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本文对青藏高原及邻区以及川滇地区大地震变迁进行研究,结合印度板块对欧亚板块推挤中力源的变化,探讨板块运动的不均匀性及碰撞规律。 通过分析认为,印度板块对欧亚板块的运动是不均衡的,具有一定的运动规律,可能经历了一个由东强——东转百——西转东——东、西强——东强的力源变化的循环过程。其中板块东部推挤较西部强烈,东部和西部推挤交替进行,板内地震显示出一定的轮回性。 今后对青藏高原地区来讲,应注意西部地区的地震活动的趋势,估计板块运动的力源会有一个变化或调整,由现在的东强转为西强的过渡阶段。对于川滇地区地震活动仍处于低水平阶段,虽有较强地震发生,但发生7级以上大地震可能性不大。
In this paper, we study the large earthquakes in the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas and in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Combining with the change of the Indian Ocean Plate in pushing the source of Eurasian plate thrust, we discuss the plate movement inhomogeneity and collision rules. According to the analysis, the Indian plate is not balanced with the Eurasian plate movement and has some movement rules. It may have experienced a transition from East Qiangdong-Dongzhuanbi-West to East-East, West-East-East The source of change in the cycle. Among them, the east part of the plate pushed more strongly than the west and the east and west pushed alternately, and the intraseismicity showed a certain degree of reincarnation. In the future, as to the Tibetan Plateau region, attention should be paid to the trend of seismic activity in the western region. It is estimated that there will be a change or adjustment of the force source of the plate movement from the present East Strong stronghold to the transitional stronghold of West Strong. Earthquake activity in Sichuan-Yunnan region is still at a low level. Although strong earthquakes occur, it is unlikely that earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above occurred.