据 2 0 0 1年 8月 2 3日《长春晚报》报道 ,最近上海天文台经天文观测后预测 ,厄尔尼诺事件将在今年年末发生 .我们在 1999年就预报 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 1年将发生厄尔尼诺事件[1 - 3 ] ,并在 2 0 0 1年进一步预测其发生时间在 2 0 0 1年末[4] .　　据笔者的计算 ,在春分、秋分和 According to the “Changchun Evening News” reported on August 23, 2001, the astronomical observatory recently predicted by Shanghai Observatory that the El Nino incident will occur at the end of this year. In 1999, we predicted that from 2000 to 2001 El Niño events will occur [1 - 3], and in 2001 it is further predicted that its occurrence will take place at the end of 2001.4 According to the author’s calculations,