【摘 要】
：
The distribution of temperature and temperature-health association varied largely across different regions in China,a region-specific defi-nition for heatwave was therefore needed.We collected the data on daily mortality,meteorological factors and air pol
【机 构】
：
National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Di
论文部分内容阅读
The distribution of temperature and temperature-health association varied largely across different regions in China,a region-specific defi-nition for heatwave was therefore needed.We collected the data on daily mortality,meteorological factors and air pollution in 84 Chinese cities during 2013-2016,which was divided into seven regions.Based on the association between daily maximum temperature and mortality in each city in a threshold distributed lag non-linear model,where the threshold was defined as the temperature corresponding to the lowest mortality risk,we calculated the number of deaths that could be avoided for 1℃decrease in maximum temperature under different thresholds,then a random-effect meta-analysis was used to generate regional results,in which the temperature with the highest avoidable mortality number for 1℃decrease was considered as the most appropriate heatwave definition.We observed an immediate detrimental effect of high temperature within three lag days.Our analysis suggested to use 29.5℃,31.5℃,29.0℃,31.5℃,30.0℃,and 28.5℃as the heatwave standard for east,north,northeast,central,south,and southwest region,with the avoidable mortality number of 1.54(95％Confidence interval(CI):0.88,2.19),0.55(95％CI:0.16,0.94),0.59(95％CI:0.32,0.86),1.14(95％CI:0.68,1.59),1.22(95％CI:0.54,1.90),and 0.78(95％CI:0.01,1.55),respectively,while the estimated number 0.19(95％CI:—0.02,0.40)in northwest region was not statistically significant.The concept of\'avoidable mortality for 1℃decrease\'was proposed to define the heatwave event,and varied maximum temperature between 28.5 and 31.5℃was suggested for region-specific heatwave definition in China.
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