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辽河中上游地区腹地是科尔沁沙地,河流径流是其重要补给源,研究径流及其变化原因对水资源合理开发利用、生态环境治理有重要的实践意义.以辽河中上游地区下洼、福山地、乌丹3个典型水文站点为基础,将气候变化归结为水热条件变化,通过改进的累积量斜率变化率比较法,定量分析径流变化、气候变化和人类活动对径流变化量的贡献.结果表明:径流量多年来呈减少趋势,随降水的增加而增加,随平均气温的升高而减少.径流量在2000年代最小,相对1990年代减少了45.89%~82.13%.径流突变点为1995年和1998年,1995-2010年(1999-2010年)与1957-1994年(1957-1998年)相比,下洼、福山地、乌丹站控制流域气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别为41.57%、60.20%和36.76%,人类活动贡献率分别为58.43%、39.80%和63.24%.
The middle and upper reaches of the Liaohe River hinterland is Horqin Sandy Land, and its runoff is an important source of supply. It is of practical significance to study the runoff and its reasons for the rational development and utilization of water resources and the management of ecological environment. , Wudan three typical hydrological stations as the basis, the climate change attributed to changes in hydrothermal conditions, through improved Cumulative rate of change of slope rate of comparison, quantitative analysis of runoff, climate change and human activities on the runoff changes in the amount of contribution.Results The results showed that runoff decreased in recent years, increased with the increase of precipitation and decreased with the rise of average temperature.The runoff was the smallest in the 2000s, and decreased by 45.89% ~ 82.13% compared with that of 1990. The sudden change of runoff occurred in 1995 Compared with 1957-1994 (1957-1998) in 1998, 1995-2010 (1999-2010), the contribution rates of climate change to runoff reduction in the watersheds controlled by the depression, Fushan and Wudan stations were 41.57 %, 60.20% and 36.76% respectively. The contribution rates of human activities were 58.43%, 39.80% and 63.24% respectively.