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低碳经济是人类社会实现可持续发展的内在要求和重要途径,是应对气候变化的必然选择。首先界定了低碳经济SREE复杂系统,该系统由社会、资源、经济和环境4个相互独立又相互联系的子系统构成的复杂巨系统。以此为基础,构建了包括经济系统、资源环境系统和社会系统在内的低碳经济复杂系统综合评价指标体系。考虑到运用突变级数法对指标体系进行评价的需要,指标体系全部由定量指标构成,避免了人为确定定性指标权重的主观性。其次,运用突变级数评价方法对2005～2009年的中国低碳经济复杂系统进行了评价。从评价结果来看,我国低碳经济复杂系统按照波浪型曲线运行,这是国际金融危机和国内经济结构调整双重因素导致的结果,同时也是复杂系统内部子系统相互影响、相互作用的结果。最后,提出了当前中国低碳经济复杂系统可持续发展的相应战略。
Low-carbon economy is an inherent requirement and an important way for human society to achieve sustainable development, and is an inevitable choice for coping with climate change. First of all, the paper defines the complex system of SREE in low-carbon economy, which consists of four separate and interconnected subsystems of society, resources, economy and environment. Based on this, a comprehensive evaluation index system for complex systems of low-carbon economy, including economic system, resource environment system and social system, is constructed. Considering the need of evaluating the index system by the method of catastrophe progression, the index system is all composed of quantitative indexes, avoiding the subjectivity of determining the weights of qualitative indexes artificially. Secondly, using the method of mutation series evaluation to evaluate the Chinese low-carbon economy complex system from 2005 to 2009. From the evaluation results, the complex system of low-carbon economy in our country runs according to the wave curve. This is the result of the dual factors of the international financial crisis and domestic economic restructuring. It is also the result of the interaction and interaction among the internal systems of complex systems. Finally, we put forward the corresponding strategies for the sustainable development of China’s low carbon economy.