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利用黄河流域72个气象站点1960-2010年的气象资料,系统分析了过去51年间气温、降水量以及潜在蒸散量的变化趋势,研究了气温、降水量与潜在蒸散量之间的长期变化趋势关系,对影响潜在蒸散量下降的主要因子进行了探讨,重点对黄河流域是否存在“蒸发悖论”进行验证。研究结果表明:(1)过去51年间,黄河流域内气温增加显著、潜在蒸散量呈下降趋势,总体上存在“蒸发悖论”;(2)“蒸发悖论”具有空间上和时间上的不一致性,随着气温增加,春、夏、冬三季潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势,减少区域主要集中于山西、河南大部分区域以及甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古、陕西等少部分区域;时间上主要表现在1960-1979年潜在蒸散量变化趋势不明显,1980-2010年气温与潜在蒸散量变化趋势在空间分布上的逆向关系更加明显;(3)过去51年间,降水量无论是年际还是夏、秋季变化趋势都不明显,降水量与潜在蒸散量时空变化分布上大体呈现逆向变化关系;(4)从气象要素变化对潜在蒸散量变化的贡献率来看,近51年来风速的明显减小是导致黄河流域潜在蒸散量减少的主导因素。
Based on the meteorological data of 72 meteorological stations in the Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2010, the change trend of temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over the past 51 years was systematically analyzed. The long-term trend of change between temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration was studied , Discussed the main factors affecting the decline of potential evapotranspiration and emphatically verified the existence of “evaporation paradox” in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that: (1) During the past 51 years, the temperature in the Yellow River basin increased significantly and the potential evapotranspiration decreased. In general, there was “evaporation paradox”; (2) "evaporation paradox As time goes on, the potential evapotranspiration in spring, summer and winter tends to decrease with the increase of air temperature. The decrease area mainly concentrates in some areas of Shanxi and Henan, as well as in some parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. The main trend is that the trend of potential evapotranspiration is not obvious from 1960 to 1979, and the reverse relationship between the trend of temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the spatial distribution is more obvious from 1980 to 2010; (3) In the past 51 years, (4) From the contribution rate of the change of meteorological elements to the potential evapotranspiration, the wind speed decreased obviously in the past 51 years, and the change trend of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration was negative. Small is the dominant factor leading to the reduction of potential evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin.