影响作物产量预报准确性的关鍵问题之一是自然条件下预报因子对作物产量影响的不确定性。本文针对作物产量预报的特点,应用集对分析中联系度的概念,将影响作物产量的预报因子分为适宜区间、影响不明显区间、不适宜区间和减产区间,进行同异反分析,建立了基于集对分析的作物产量预报模型。并对新昌县小麦产量进行预报试验,结果表明,联系度的引进改进了预报因子的合理性,能提高小麦产量预报的准确性。 One of the key issues that affect the accuracy of crop yield forecasting is the uncertainty of the impact of forecasting factors on crop yields under natural conditions. In this paper, according to the characteristics of crop yield forecasting, the concept of contact degree in set pair analysis was applied. The forecasting factors affecting crop yield were divided into suitable range, non-obvious range, unfavorable range and reduced range, Crop Yield Prediction Model Based on Set Pair Analysis. The wheat yield in Xinchang County was tested. The results showed that the introduction of the contact degree improved the rationality of the forecasting factors and the accuracy of wheat yield forecasting.