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英那河水库承担着重要的供水与防洪任务,目前缺乏可以利用的洪水预报方案。本文结合流域气候及下垫面特点,利用新安江三水源模型研究该区域的洪水预报方案,利用遗传算法率定模型参数。结果表明:新安江模型整体预报结果较理想,尤其对于前期土壤湿润的场次。不分类预报的产流预报结果达到甲级水平;以土壤含水量为界进行的分类汇流预报结果整体达到乙级预报水平,精度与确定性系数均有显著的提高,对该水库的防洪调度具有重要意义。
Yingnahe Reservoir undertakes important water supply and flood control tasks, and currently there is no available flood forecasting program. Based on the characteristics of watershed climate and underlying surface, this paper uses the Xin’anjiang water source model to study the flood forecasting scheme in this area and uses genetic algorithm to determine the model parameters. The results show that the overall forecast result of Xin’anjiang model is ideal, especially for the pre-soils wetting stage. The result of runoff forecast of uncategorized forecast reaches Grade A level. The result of classification converging forecast based on soil water content reaches the level of B forecast, and the accuracy and certainty coefficient are significantly improved. The flood control schedule of this reservoir has Significance.