Escalating Tension

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  U.S. President Donald Trump signed
  a proclamation recognizing Israeli
  sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood next to him in the Oval Offi ce on March 25.
  The Trump administration’s move reversed the position that the U.S. has held for more than 50 years after Israel seized the Golan from Syria during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. Israel subsequently annexed the land in 1981, which the 15-member UN Security Council, including the U.S., declared “null and void and without international legal effect.”
  The U.S. move was opposed and condemned by all other 14 member countries of the Security Council at a meeting on March 27. Rosemary DiCarlo, UN Under Secretary General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, said the UN position on the territory is clear, notably in Security Council resolutions 242(1967) and 497 (1981). “We hope that the recent developments will not be used as an excuse by anyone to pursue actions that could undermine the relative stability of the situation on the Golan and beyond,” she stressed.
  Rejecting “the illegal statement” by the U.S., Syria’s delegate to the UN emphasized that the unilateral action had neither legal nor moral value. World public opinion is isolating the U.S. and Israel, said Syrian Ambassador to the UN Bashar Jaafari, during the UN Security Council meeting.
  “You can give them North and South Carolina, for example, why not? South Carolina is a great piece of land... So, give Israel a couple of states if this administration really wants to have Israeli support,” Jaafari said.
  Washington’s European allies are also against the move. The French Deputy Ambassador to the UN Anne Guegen said the European Union had affirmed that its member states did not recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan and that any efforts to override UN Security Council resolutions over the land were “doomed to failure.” The UK’s representative to the UN said that her delegation’s position that the Golan is terri- tory occupied by Israel remains unchanged, affirming her country’s belief in the rulesbased international order.
  Wu Haitao, Deputy Permanent Representative of China to the UN, said the parties concerned should implement the relevant Security Council resolutions. The Golan is recognized by the international community as occupied territory, he said, China does not wish to see tensions rise in the area.
  Behind the move   For Netanyahu who faces voters in a hardfought election back home on April 9, Trump’s decree came at a very good time and is an invaluable political gift, said Liu Baolai, former Ambassador of China to Jordan and a senior researcher with the China Institute of International Studies.
  According to Liu, Netanyahu had to deal with various corruption allegations and a fi erce challenge from Benny Gantz, a retired military chief, during the campaign, leading to the possibility that he may lose.
  Moreover, Trump’s support for Israel and Netanyahu has played well with his conservative political base, which can drum up more support for his 2020 re-election bid, according to Liu.
  This proclamation followed the U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the moving of its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May 2018.



  The Trump administration has always adopted a pro-Israel policy, Yu Guoqing,a researcher on Mideast studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said. By recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan, the strategic partnership between the U.S. and Israel has hit a record high. A string of diplomatic overtures refl ect that Washington still values Israel as its most reliable ally in the Middle East and the most trustworthy partner to implement U.S. policy in the region, such as striking against Iran. That is why Trump has consistently emphasized deepening bilateral ties, Yu said.
  Realizing checks and balances in the Middle East by using allied forces is the most evident characteristic of the current U.S. Middle East policy, Sun Degang, a professor with Shanghai International Studies University, said. With the increasing presence of non-Western powers in the Middle East such as Russia, Egypt and Iran, the Trump administration is reluctant to invest too much manpower and money, instead pushing ahead its Middle East Strategic Alliance plan, where facilitating strategic cooperation with Israel plays an important part. “Israel becomes the ‘bridgehead’of the U.S. in the Eastern Mediterranean area,” Sun said.
  Future impact
  It is clear that the U.S. recognition will not transcend the consensus of the UN or the international community, bearing more symbolic meaning than actual influence. The U.S. posture did not produce any changes in the situation, Yu said. Israel has tightly controlled the Golan since 1967. Syria and other neighboring countries do not possess the military strength to drive Israel out.   The Golan is of signifi cant strategic importance as it borders Israel, Lebanon and Jordan. The plateau, with an average altitude of 1,000 meters, can overlook the Galilee Valley in Israel and Syria’s capital Damascus. The transportation network is developed in this region with roads directly connected to Damascus. Moreover, it is abundant in water resources and viewed as the water tower of the area. With an annual rainfall of 500 to 600 mm fl owing into the southwest Galilee Lake, it provides 40 percent of fresh water for Israel.
  Trump’s attempt to legalize the Israeli occupation violated the long-held international principles of preserving territorial integrity and prohibiting the acquisition of the territory of other countries through war. Analysts believe that it could pave the way for the U.S. to recognize a future annexation of the West Bank by Israel.
  The U.S. move will definitely affect Arab countries’ attitude toward Israel in the short term, Yu said. Israel has been striving to improve ties with Arab countries in recent years, but such efforts will be thwarted.
  In the long term, Trump’s so-called Middle East peace plan will face more obstacles, while the relationship between the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries will be more diffi cult, and achieving real peace will be more challenging.
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