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2011年,我国物价总水平高位运行,同比涨幅先升后降,预计CPI全年上涨5.5%,PPI上涨6.4%。展望2012年,总需求放缓、粮食丰收、房地产调控累积效应逐步显现、猪肉价格上涨周期趋于结束、翘尾因素减弱和大宗商品价格趋稳等因素将抑制物价涨幅;但劳动力成本上升、高货币存量及负利率刺激投资、通胀预期增强和资源价格改革逐步推进等因素将支撑物价涨幅。综合考虑各种因素,预计2012年CPI和PPI涨幅将有所收窄,分别上涨4%和4.5%。
In 2011, the general price level of China was running at a high level, up first and then decreased. The CPI is expected to rise by 5.5% for the whole year and PPI by 6.4%. Looking forward to 2012, the aggregate demand will slow down. The cumulative effect of grain harvest and real estate regulation and control will gradually appear. The cycle of pork price rising will come to an end. Factors such as the weakening of the hikes and the stabilization of commodity prices will curb the price rise. However, labor costs will rise, Factors such as the stock of currency and negative interest rates to stimulate investment, the expected increase in inflation and the gradual promotion of resource price reform will support price increases. Taking all factors into consideration, the CPI and PPI inflation are expected to narrow in 2012, up 4% and 4.5% respectively.