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应本刊邀请,几位专家介绍了上半年国际原油和油品的价格走势,对3月份以来原油价格出乎意料上涨的原因进行了分析,并对今后的油价走势发表了看法。专家们认为,影响今年下半年国际原油价格走势的主要因素是世界经济的增长、欧佩克的生产行为、美国和亚太地区石油需求的增长,以及石油库存下降的幅度和速度。在这些市场基本因素发生作用的过程中,石油期贷市场参与者的交易行为,也将对石油价格的水平和波动幅度产生重大影响。预计油价不会长时间维持在20美元/桶的水平上,以布伦特油为基准,下半年平均油价水平为16.5～18美元/桶。
At the invitation of this magazine, several experts introduced the price trend of international crude oil and oil products in the first half of the year, analyzed the reasons for the unexpected rise of crude oil prices since March, and expressed their opinions on future oil price movements. Experts believe that the major factors that will affect the trend of international crude oil prices in the second half of this year are the growth of the world economy, OPEC’s production practices, the increase in oil demand in the United States and the Asia Pacific region, and the magnitude and rate of decline in oil inventories. In the process of the basic factors of these markets, the trading behavior of participants in the oil futures market will also have a significant impact on the level and volatility of oil prices. The price of oil is not expected to maintain for a long time at the level of 20 US dollars / barrel. Based on Brent oil, the average oil price in the second half of the year will be 16.5-18 US dollars / barrel.