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2012年,国内玉米生产继续稳步发展,产量再创历史新高,市场价格基本稳定,与小麦形成倒挂,消费替代显著增加,玉米进口大幅增加。主要原因,一方面连续增产及进口明显增加有效改善了供求关系,另一方面深加工业经营困难,饲料消费也因小麦替代增加而受到抑制,同时国家通过调整财税政策加强对深加工业的宏观调控。2012年国际玉米价格大幅波动,供求关系进一步趋紧,库存大幅减少。预计2013年国内玉米生产仍稳步发展,价格稳中有升的可能性较大,进口可能有所下降。建议落实并完善玉米临时收储政策,继续严格控制深加工业过度发展。
In 2012, the domestic corn production continued to develop steadily with a new record high in output. The market price was basically stable. Inverted with the formation of wheat, consumer substitution increased significantly and corn imports increased substantially. The main reason is that on the one hand, the continuous increase in production and the significant increase in imports have effectively improved the supply-demand relationship. On the other hand, the deep-processing industry has encountered difficulties in operation and feed consumption has also been inhibited by the increase in wheat substitutes. At the same time, the state has stepped up its macro-control over the deep-processing industry by adjusting its fiscal and taxation policies. The international corn price fluctuated sharply in 2012, further tightening the relationship between supply and demand, and the inventory dropped significantly. It is estimated that the domestic corn production will still be steadily developing in 2013, the price is likely to rise steadily, and the import may decline. It is recommended to implement and improve the policy of temporary storage and storage of corn and continue to strictly control the excessive development of the deep-processing industry.