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为有效预测协调风险可能对水电工程项目群带来的损失程度,提出了赋权多级平滑法,在分析水电工程项目群协调风险及其预测可行性的基础上,将水电工程项目群协调风险造成的损失表述为风险值,并构造协调风险的一组时间序列预测样本,借助一次、二次、三次、四次指数平滑法对样本数据进行分析与计算,在此基础上对计算出的结果按其准确性赋予不同的权重,得出最终预测出的风险值,按照大小确定其对应的风险可控程度,得出该风险可能对水电工程项目群带来的损失程度。案例应用结果表明,该水电工程项目群协调风险属于较高风险,与实际风险值相符。可见所提方法可行、有效。
In order to effectively forecast the degree of damage that the coordination risks may bring to hydropower projects, a weighted multi-level smoothing method is proposed. On the basis of analyzing the coordination risk of hydropower projects and the feasibility of its forecasting, the hydropower project coordination risk The damage caused is expressed as the risk value, and a set of time-series prediction samples of coordination risk are constructed. The sample data are analyzed and calculated by first, second, third and fourth exponential smoothing methods. Based on this, the calculated results According to the accuracy given different weights, the final predicted risk value, according to the size of its corresponding risk controllable degree, draw the risk that the hydropower project may bring losses. The case application shows that the coordination risk of the hydropower project belongs to higher risk, which is consistent with the actual risk. Can be seen that the proposed method is feasible and effective.