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通过１９８３～１９８５年、１９９２～１９９１年先后共６年时间的研究，明确了辽宁棉区烂铃病的主要种类是棉花铃疫病（Ｐｈｙｔｏｐｈｔｈｏｒａｓｐ．）。烂铃病发病的关键因子是降雨量和铃期，当田间棉花开花后的一个月左右，遇连续降雨或日降雨量超过１０ｍｍ时，烂铃病严重发生，出现明显烂铃高峰。通过烂铃剧增期３天前的连续５天累积降雨与烂铃增长率回归分析，得出烂铃病刷增期前３天的短期预报模型ｙ＝ａｘｂ＝０．００６０３ｘ￣（１．２１８）（ｘ为剧增期３天前的５日累积降雨量）．结合当日调查单株烂铃数，当ｗ＝ｚ＋ｚｙ≥０．２（ｗ－３日后烂铃数／株，ｚ一当日烂铃数／株，ｙ－烂铃增长率）时即进行发报，指导防治。
Through the study from 1983 to 1985 and from 1992 to 1991, it was found that the main species of rotten bollworm in Liaoning cotton area is Phytophthora sp. The main factors affecting the incidence of rotten boll disease were rainfall and boll age. When cotton fields in the field were about one month after flowering, when the continuous rainfall or daily rainfall exceeded 10 mm, the bad bell disease seriously occurred, and the peak of the rotten boll appeared obviously. The results showed that the short-term forecast model of the rotten bell brush increased 3 days before the increase was y = axb = 0.00603x ~ (1.218 ) (X is the cumulative increase in rainfall on the 5th of the three days before the dramatic increase). Combined with the investigation of the number of rotten plants on the same day, the report was made when w = z + zy≥0.2 (the value of the straincounts / strain on day w-3, the number of rotted bells on day z, the rate of growth of y- Guidance and prevention.