一、引言:“大缓和”背景下的中国经济周期之问1980年代中期以来,除日本以外的主要经济体的产出波动均陆续出现了持续而显著的下降,并且,在GDP平稳较快增长的同时,通胀保持在较低水平。一些经济学家将这一现象称之为经济周期的“大缓和(Great Moderation)”。经济波动性的降低有很多好处。产出波动性的降低有助于就业的稳 I. INTRODUCTION Since the mid-1980s, the output fluctuations of major economies other than Japan have been followed by a continuous and significant decline. In the context of a steady GDP Rapid growth at the same time, inflation remained at a low level. Some economists call this phenomenon the “Great Moderation” of the business cycle. There are many benefits to reducing economic volatility. Lower volatility of output helps to stabilize employment