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以投资风险评估理论为基础,结合政府水土保持投资风险的特点,研究投资风险辨识体系,在全项目风险结构分解的基础上,提出基于蒙特卡洛风险模拟的政府水土保持投资风险分析方法,并以某水土保持工程为案例进行计算。结果与预期一致,表明用该投资风险分析方法可进行水土保持工程的政府投资风险分析。
Based on the theory of investment risk assessment, combined with the characteristics of government investment in soil and water conservation, this paper studies the investment risk identification system and puts forward a risk analysis method of government investment in soil and water conservation based on Monte Carlo risk simulation based on the decomposition of risk structure in the whole project. Take a soil and water conservation project as a case study. The result is consistent with the expectation, which shows that the risk analysis of government investment in soil and water conservation project can be carried out by using the method of investment risk analysis.