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库存及库存周期是衡量和预测产出波动、产出缺口的重要参考指标,在现代经济学研究中越来越受到重视。本文在已有研究文献的基础上,创新性地引入两区制门限向量自回归模型(TVAR),研究在库存周期中的补库存和去库存阶段中,库存冲击对宏观经济周期波动的非线性特征。实证结果表明,库存冲击是促进短期产出增长的重要因素,当前我国正处于被动型库存减少的补库存阶段,工业部门库存大幅减少,库存增长速度缓慢,对应经济周期中的萧条阶段;去库存与补库存之间的区制转换不仅受库存水平自身影响,同时还有20%-32.81%的概率受物价冲击影响;库存正向冲击短期内会带来物价水平降低和货币资金水平大幅上升。根据实证结论,建议当前采取供给侧结构性改革、降低生产成本等加快去库存方式实现稳增长目标,并加快过渡到库存重建的主动型库存增加阶段。同时要重视补库存阶段对后期物价水平带来的影响,中央银行要结合不同的库存周期所处阶段微调市场货币资金水平。
Inventory and inventory cycles are important reference indicators for measuring and forecasting output volatility and output gap, and have drawn more and more attention in the study of modern economics. Based on the existing literature, this paper innovatively introduces the two-zone threshold-based vector autoregressive model (TVAR) to study the nonlinearity of inventory shocks to the volatility of the macroeconomic cycle in the inventory replenishment and de-stocking stages feature. The empirical results show that the inventory shock is an important factor to promote the growth of short-term output. At present, China is in the phase of replenishment of passive inventory reduction. The inventory of industrial sectors has decreased dramatically, the inventory growth rate has been slow, corresponding to the depression period in the economic cycle. The switching of regimes with replenishment is affected not only by the level of stocks themselves, but also by a 20% -32.81% probability of being affected by the price shocks. Positive stockpiling will bring about a reduction in the price level and a substantial increase in the level of monetary funds in the short term. According to the empirical conclusion, it is suggested that the current take the supply-side structural reform, reduce production costs and other accelerated inventory to achieve steady growth target, and accelerate the transition to inventory reconstruction phase of the initiative to increase inventory. At the same time, attention should be paid to the impact of replenishment and stockpiling on the latter part of the price level. The central bank needs to fine-tune the market monetary funds in combination with different stages of the inventory cycle.