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以流域土地利用变化、非点源污染、水利水保措施、旅游业发展以及矿山开发等人类活动作为影响因素,运用SWAT模型对密云水库1990-2005年的入库径流量及水质变化过程进行模拟。选用月径流模拟的效率系数、相对误差、相关系数作为模型适用性的评价指标。模拟结果表明,在考虑人类活动的影响下,对密云水库来水量及水质进行模拟更加符合当今复杂下垫面情况下的实际径流过程。研究结果对人类活动影响下的密云水库入库径流量及水质变化过程提供新的思路。
Taking the human activities such as land use change, non-point source pollution, water conservancy and water conservancy measures, tourism development and mine development in the basin as the influencing factors, the SWAT model was used to simulate the inflow and runoff of Miyun Reservoir in 1990-2005 . The efficiency coefficient, relative error and correlation coefficient of monthly runoff simulation are selected as the evaluation indexes of the applicability of the model. The simulation results show that under the influence of human activities, the simulation of water inflow and water quality in Miyun Reservoir is more in line with the actual runoff under the current complicated underlying surface conditions. The results provide new ideas for the runoff of Miyun reservoir and the process of water quality change under the influence of human activities.