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为评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸的灾害风险,结合前景理论与模糊综合评价理论,建立风险评价模型。根据煤矿瓦斯爆炸的形成条件和事故致因理论,建立风险评价体系;运用前景理论,以统计推断计算的区间数期望值为参考点,确定各指标属性值为区间数的决策权重,结合模糊综合评价理论与区间数排序原理,建立基于区间数的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险模糊综合评价模型;运用该模型对某地3座煤矿进行风险评估,风险评价结果与煤矿的生产实际情况一致。结果表明:该评价方法克服了人的有限理性行为对决策时的主观期望效用的影响,使评价结果更加客观、科学。
In order to evaluate the disaster risk of gas explosion in coal mine, the risk evaluation model is established by combining the theory of prospect and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory. According to the formation conditions of coal mine gas explosion and the cause of accident, a risk assessment system is established. By applying the theory of foreground, taking the expectation of the interval numbers of statistical inference as the reference point, the weight of each index is determined as the decision weight of the interval number. Combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation Theory and interval number sorting principle, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of coal mine gas explosion risk based on interval number is established. By using this model, risk assessment of three coal mines in a certain place is conducted. The result of risk assessment is consistent with the actual production of coal mines. The results show that this method overcomes the effect of bounded rationality on the subjective expected utility in decision-making, and makes the evaluation result more objective and scientific.