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2001年匈牙利经济偏离了平衡增长的轨道。在过去的6年间,国家财政赤字增长到一个无法承受的水平,经常项目的赤字也非常高。实际工资的增长远快于劳动生产率增长。这些困境以及其他一些宏观经济问题促使匈牙利政府在2006年7月采取了调整计划。本文的第一部分分析当前宏观经济状况和调整措施的预期经济与社会效果。政府准备接受改革的政治代价,特别是必不可少的改革措施降低政府赢得政治选举的可能性,这显示了政府的承诺和决心。本文的第二部分讨论需要立即采取的措施及长期效果和深层制度改革之间的关系。
The Hungarian economy deviated from the track of balanced growth in 2001. In the past six years, the national fiscal deficit has risen to an unacceptable level and the current account deficit has also been very high. Real wages have increased much faster than labor productivity growth. These dilemmas and other macroeconomic issues prompted the Hungarian government to adopt an adjustment plan in July 2006. The first part of this article analyzes the expected economic and social effects of the current macroeconomic conditions and adjustment measures. The government’s commitment and determination are demonstrated by the government’s readiness to accept the political costs of reform, and in particular, the indispensable reform measures that reduce the likelihood of the government winning political elections. The second part of this article discusses the steps that need to be taken immediately, as well as the relationship between long-term results and the reform of the deep-seated system.