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从美国房地产市场的自身发展规律看,关国次贷危机至少要持续到2011年底。利用模型模拟预测的结果表明,次贷危机对美国经济增长的负面冲击将延续到2013年,2009年美国经济增速将出现深度回调,此后将进入低速增长状态。美国经济增速放缓将对我国经济增长产生重大冲击,2009年我国 GDP 增速有可能回调到8.5%左右。借鉴次贷危机的教训,目前应加强金融监管和房地产市场调控,严防国内房地产泡沫扩大。
From the perspective of its own development in the real estate market in the United States, the subprime mortgage crisis in the country should last at least until the end of 2011. The model predictions using simulation results show that the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on U.S. economic growth will continue into 2013, and the U.S. economy will see a deep correction in 2009 and will enter a slow growth state thereafter. The slowdown in U.S. economic growth will have a major impact on China’s economic growth. In 2009, China’s GDP growth may be revised back to about 8.5%. Lessons learned from the subprime mortgage crisis, the current financial supervision and regulation of the real estate market should be strengthened to prevent the expansion of the domestic real estate bubble.