一、引言震害的现实使人们认识到,解决地震预报的根本出路是从经验预报或统计预报转变为物理预报.但由于地震孕育是一个复杂的动力过程,目前还不能用适当的动力学方程(微分方程组)表示,不能用解析方法研究地震活动演化的物理机制.用地震资料及其它地球物理与地质资料重构地震孕育复杂动力系统,从理论上讲是可行的,但由于强震前较长时 I. INTRODUCTION The reality of earthquake damage makes people realize that the fundamental way to solve earthquake prediction is to change from empirical prediction or statistical prediction to physical prediction.But because of earthquake complicated breeding process, we can not use the appropriate kinetic equation (Differential Equations), we can not analyze the physical mechanism of the evolution of seismic activity analytically.It is theoretically feasible to reconstruct the complex dynamical system with seismic data and other geophysical and geological data, but before the strong earthquakes Longer time