【摘 要】
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Nearly-zero energy buildings(NZEB)would effectively improve building energy efficiency and promote building electrification.By using a carbon emission model integrated into a bottom-up mid-to-long term energy consumption model,this study analyzes the cont
【机 构】
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China Academy of Building Research,Beijing,100013,China;International Science and Technology Coopera
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Nearly-zero energy buildings(NZEB)would effectively improve building energy efficiency and promote building electrification.By using a carbon emission model integrated into a bottom-up mid-to-long term energy consumption model,this study analyzes the contribution of NZEB standards to carbon emission targets in the urban area of China by 2060.Three scenarios are set,namely BAU,steady development(S1),and high-speed development(S2).For BAU,the total carbon emissions will reach a peak of 1.94 Gt CO2 by 2040.In S1 scenario,total building carbon emissions will reach the peak of 1.72 Gt CO2 by 2030.In S2 scenario,the carbon emissions will reach a peak by 2025 with 1.64 Gt CO2.Under S1 scenario,which features consistency with NZEB market development and periodic improvement of building energy-efficiency standards,the carbon emission peak in 2030 will be accomplished.To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,the upgrading of building energy standards to NZEB will contribute 50.1％,while zero-carbon electricity contribution is 49.9％.It is concluded that 2025,2030,and 2035 could be set as mandatory enforcement years for ultra-low energy buildings,NZEB and zero energy building(ZEB),respectively.
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