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目的探讨眼科诊疗人次季节变动预测分析的意义。方法采用季节指数分析法对眼科2001年~2013年诊疗人次进行分析。结果根据诊疗人次趋势图可以看出诊疗人次呈逐年上升趋势;通过季节指数比较得出诊疗人次有着明显的季节变化,即第三季度为旺季,季节比率指数为1.2178,第一季度为低谷,季节比率指数为0.9076。结论医院要利用有限的人力资源,科学合理地组织、管理医疗工作以适应季节的变化;同时要加大医院的硬件、软件建设力度,以适应不断增长的医疗服务需求。
Objective To explore the significance of predicting and analyzing the season changes of ophthalmology clinics. Methods The seasonal index analysis method was used to analyze the number of visits and treatments of ophthalmology from 2001 to 2013. Results According to the trend chart of clinic visits, the number of clinic visits increased year by year. Comparing the season index with the seasonal changes, there was a clear seasonal change in the number of visits, that is, the third quarter was the peak season, with a seasonally adjusted seasonal index of 1.2178 and a low trough in the first quarter The ratio index is 0.9076. Conclusion The hospital should use limited human resources to organize and manage medical work scientifically and rationally to adapt to seasonal changes. At the same time, hospitals should increase the hardware and software construction to meet the increasing demand for medical services.