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流域生态系统产水服务功能的空间化和定量化评估,对流域水资源管理、优化配置以及提高流域水生态保护效率具有重要意义。以山东省南四湖流域为研究对象,基于1990—2013年土地利用、降水、蒸散以及土壤属性等基础地理数据,以InVEST模型为基础,评估和模拟南四湖流域近25 a的产水量,并采用ArcGIS分析产水量的空间分布格局以及变化趋势,探讨了降水、地形等自然地理要素以及人口、土地利用和国内生产总值(GDP)等社会经济因素与产水量空间格局动态变化之间的关系,并在此基础上划分出南四湖流域生态系统产水功能区。研究结果表明:流域产水量在空间格局上呈现出由东向西递减的趋势,东部、东北部等山区、丘陵地区产水量高,西部平原地区产水相对较低;受自然地理要素影响,流域产水量空间分布与社会经济发展水平即GDP、人口密度的空间分布格局有较大差异。近25 a来,流域产水量呈现减少趋势,且产水量峰值区域由东北部向偏南地区转移,最低值区由西部向中部地区转移。降水、海拔和坡度等地理环境与产水量的空间变化呈显著正相关,其中降水量的相关程度最强;人口、GDP等社会经济数据与产水量变化也呈显著正相关,主要原因在于城市化的发展,城市建设用地等不透水层增加,促进了流域产水量。研究结果可以为流域水资源政策制定以及社会经济发展规划等宏观决策提供科学支撑。
Spatial and quantitative assessment of watershed ecosystem service functions is of great significance for the management of water resources, optimal allocation of water resources and the improvement of the efficiency of watershed ecosystem protection. Based on the InVEST model, based on the basic geographic data of land use, precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil properties from 1990 to 2013, the Nansi Lake Basin in Shandong Province was evaluated and simulated for its water production in the past 25 years. ArcGIS was used to analyze the spatial distribution and trend of water production, and the relationship between the factors of natural geography such as precipitation and topography and the dynamic changes of spatial and spatial pattern of socio-economic factors such as population, land use and gross domestic product On the basis of which, it divides the functional area of water production of ecosystem in Nansi Lake Basin. The results show that the water yield in the basin tends to decrease from east to west in the spatial pattern. The water production in the hilly areas in eastern and northeastern regions is high, and the water production in the western plains is relatively low. Affected by the natural geographical factors, Spatial distribution of water production and socio-economic development that GDP, population density spatial distribution pattern is quite different. In the recent 25 years, the water production in the basin showed a decreasing trend, and the peak area of water production shifted from the northeast to the south, while the lowest was transferred from the west to the middle. There was a significant positive correlation between the geographical environment such as precipitation, altitude and slope, and the spatial variation of water production, of which the precipitation correlation was the strongest. The socio-economic data such as population and GDP also had a significant positive correlation with the changes of water production. The main reason was the urbanization The development of urban construction land and other impervious layer increases, and promote the basin water production. The results of this study can provide scientific support for macroeconomic policy-making of water resources policy and socio-economic development planning.