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归纳了收费公路通行费预测的重要性,总结了现行基于交通预测四阶段法的通行费预测方法和模型的缺陷,指出了采用统计回归方法建立省域高速公路通行费预测模型的合理性和必要性。通过因子相关分析,发现江西省域高速公路通行费的63个影响因数之间的相关性,确定了江西有关因素和相邻省份因素之间的相关性非常高的事实。借助于前进选择法,确定了省域高速公路通行费预测的3个关键变量即常住人口数、江西民用汽车总数和公路运营车辆总数,并提出了相应的预测模型。最后,在Pearson相关系数矩阵的基础上,探讨了新建高速公路对附近高速公路交通需求和通行费的影响。
Summarized the importance of toll road toll forecasting, summed up the current toll forecasting method and model based on the four-phase traffic forecasting method, and pointed out the rationality and necessity of using statistical regression method to establish toll fee forecasting model of provincial expressway Sex. Through factor correlation analysis, the correlation between 63 influential factors of highway toll fees in Jiangxi Province was found, and the fact that there is a very high correlation between relevant factors in Jiangxi Province and neighboring provinces was found. With the aid of forward selection method, three key variables of provincial highway toll forecasting, namely, the resident population, the total number of civilian vehicles in Jiangxi and the total number of road operation vehicles were determined, and the corresponding prediction models were put forward. Finally, based on the Pearson correlation coefficient matrix, the impact of the new expressway on the traffic demand and toll fee of nearby expressways is discussed.