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在我国对地方政府债务实行限额管理的背景下,结合地方政府债务置换实践,本文对债务限额法在测算地方政府举债空间中的应用进行了探索性分析。以某直辖市公开债务数据和财政指标为研究样本,系统估算了债务规模、债务成本、综合财力等因素对地方政府举债空间的定量效应及其动态变动情况。进而将该方法应用于我国省际政府举债空间的估算。基于定量分析结果,本文建议从举债空间的测算主体、融资成本和事后监管三个方面落实举债空间应用的政策保障,规范对地方政府债务的限额管理。
Under the background of the quota management of local government debt in our country, combined with the practice of debt replacement by local government, this paper makes an exploratory analysis of the application of the debt ceiling method in calculating the borrowing space of local government. Taking the data of public debts and financial indicators of a municipality directly under the central government as research samples, the quantitative effect and dynamic changes of debt scale, debt cost and comprehensive financial resources on the borrowing space of local governments are systematically estimated. Then this method is applied to the estimation of the borrowing space in the interprovincial government of our country. Based on the results of quantitative analysis, this paper proposes to implement the policy guarantee for the application of debt space from three aspects: the main body of measurement of borrowing space, financing costs and ex post supervision, and regulate the quota management of local government debt.