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第一代农业生物技术主要通过控制农业病虫害达到增产目的,但人们对于转基因作物通过减少作物损害到底能提高多少产出的问题一直没能达成一致。研究人员针对这一问题进行过多次实验,可由于这些实验在规模和范围上的局限性,试验结果差异很大。本文为解决这一问题,对各国采用生物技术后粮食供应的变化进行了计算。研究表明转基因作物对于产量的提高有着巨大的促进作用,而传统提高作物产量的手段所达到的效果却并不明显。本文还使用经济计量模型对转基因种子在2008年粮食危机期间在稳定粮食价格方面的作用进行了分析,如果当时没有使用转基因种子,粮食价格将会高企不下,这势必导致对农业用地的需求进一步增高,并因将林地转换为农业用地导致温室气体排放的增加。
The first generation of agricultural biotechnology was mainly aimed at increasing pests and diseases through controlling agricultural pests and diseases. However, there has been no consensus on how much genetically modified crops can increase the output by reducing crop damage. Researchers have conducted many experiments on this issue. Due to the limitations of scale and scope of these experiments, the results of experiments vary greatly. To address this issue, this article calculates the changes in food availability in countries following biotechnology adoption. Studies show that genetically modified crops can greatly improve the yield, while the traditional methods of improving crop yield are not obvious. The paper also uses econometric models to analyze the role of genetically modified seeds in stabilizing food prices during the 2008 food crisis, and if the GM seeds were not used at that time, the price of food would remain high, which would inevitably lead to a further increase in the demand for agricultural land And the increase in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the conversion of forest land to agricultural land.