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采用1989～2006年的时序数据,通过建立向量自回归模型考量我国农业投入品价格上涨与柑橘收益之间的动态影响关系,并在对VAR模型进行残差检验和稳定性检验的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差方法进行经济计量分析。研究结果表明,柑橘每亩纯收益对农业投入品价格上涨有负向响应并趋向稳定;农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘每亩纯收益增长有正向响应并趋向稳定。为有效缓解我国农业投入品价格大幅度上涨对柑橘收益产生负面影响,政府应健全农业投入品调控机制,取消农业投入品生产和流通环节的补贴政策,对农民实行直接补贴;建立中央和地方两级农业投入品储备制度,平抑农业投入品市场价格季节性波动;完善农业投入品连锁经营体系,降低农业投入品流通成本。
By using the time series data from 1989 to 2006, this paper establishes the vector autoregressive model to consider the dynamic relationship between the price increase of agricultural inputs and citrus returns in China. Based on the VAR model and the residuals test and the stability test, Impulse response function and prediction variance method for econometric analysis. The results show that the net yield per acre of citrus has a negative response to the price of agricultural inputs and tends to be stable. The price of agricultural inputs has a positive response to the net yield per acre and tends to be stable. In order to effectively alleviate the negative impact of China’s agricultural input prices on citrus returns, the government should improve the agricultural input control mechanism, cancel the subsidy policy of agricultural inputs production and circulation and direct subsidies to farmers, and establish the central and local governments Level agricultural input reserve system to stabilize seasonal fluctuations in market prices of agricultural inputs; improve the agricultural input chain management system and reduce the cost of agricultural inputs circulation.