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本文研究了税收递延型养老保险对我国养老产业和社会福利的影响。文章采用理论建模和数值模拟的方法,综合考虑了金融风险和背景风险,搭建了以社会福利作为目标的研究框架。研究结果显示,税收递延政策将直接提高DC型养老基金的缴费率,并间接地提高养老基金的规模,但对基金的投资策略不具有显著影响。特别地,单纯对养老保险实施税收递延政策对社会福利的提升有限,最终难以对代表性个体形成有效的激励,从而失去发挥作用的微观基础。本文提出,将税收递延政策与其他税收优惠政策相结合,例如,EET(延税型账户)与TEE(免税型账户)的结合,能够有效地改善这一问题。
This paper studies the impact of tax deferred pension on China’s pension industry and social welfare. The article adopts the methods of theoretical modeling and numerical simulation, taking into account the financial risks and the background risks, and sets up the research framework which takes the social welfare as the goal. The results show that the tax deferral policy will directly raise the contribution rate of the DC-based pension fund and indirectly increase the size of the pension fund, but it will not have a significant impact on the fund’s investment strategy. In particular, the simple implementation of the tax deferral policy on pension insurance has limited the promotion of social welfare, and ultimately it is difficult to form an effective incentive for representative individuals, thus losing the micro-foundation for their role. This paper proposes that the combination of tax deferral policy and other tax incentives, such as the combination of EET (tax-deferred tax account) and TEE (tax-exempt account), can effectively improve this problem.